1

The data that serves as the basis for this review was obtained from the data base of Grand

County Board of Realtors. While the data is considered to be reliable, the data is not

guaranteed to be accurate.

2010 as compared to 2009 brought about a change in decreasing total sales volume of

single family residences, townhomes, condominiums and vacant land sales for Grand

County. Total sales volume of those categories increased by 5% coming from

$148,940,182to $156,836,328.

The Winter Park/ Fraser Valley area continues to have the greater market share at 65%,

followed by the Granby area at 19%, Grand Lake area at 11%, the Kremmling area at 4%

and the Hot Sulphur Springs area at 1%.

2

The following chart reflects the trend from 2003 through 2010 of total sales volume.

Overall, the market activity indicates that sales activity is showing improvement as

compared to 2009, which is possibly a result of buyers starting to take advantage of

discounted list prices.

3

The categories (single family residential, townhomes, condominiums and vacant land)

relative to market share of total market sales volume indicates that single family

residences had 50% of the total sales volume, condominium sales at 30%, townhomes at

14% and vacant land sales at 6%.

The $7,896,146 change in volume was largely contributed by the Winter Park/Fraser

Valley area which reflected an increase in total volume of $11,358,545 or a 12%

increase. Granby had an increase of $2,921,309 or a 11% increase over 2009. Grand Lake

had no change with a minimal decrease of $60,838. Hot Sulphur Springs reflected an

increase of $158,500 which equated to a 16% change. Kremmling had the most

substantial change with a decrease of total sales of $6,481,370 or a decrease of 52%.

4

The primary markets in east Grand County are the Winter Park/Fraser Valley area,

Granby area and Grand Lake area. The following charts tracks the average prices by

market area for condominiums, single family residences, and vacant land for these three

areas.

5

Relative to the condominium market in the Winter Park area, there does appear to be

some correlation between the percentage change in total sales volume to the percentage

change in average selling prices. This is best illustrated in the following chart.

Average selling prices reflect some lag time relative to total sales either decreasing or

increasing.

The same appears to hold true for the Granby condominium market.

6

The percentage change in single family average selling prices also follows closely the

trend lines for total sales but with a wider gap or lag time than condominium sales, as

illustrated on the following chart.

Therefore, in general, the data indicates that the average selling prices will typically lag

behind an increasing sales market and when volume of sales decrease there will be a lag

before there is a decrease in the average selling price.

Overall, it appears that the single family residential market in the

increasing. The townhome market appears to have also stabilized to a degree with the

number of sales holding fairly stable over the past 3 years and average prices in 2010

only decreasing by 1% whereas median prices increased by 6%. The condominium

market continues to reflect decreasing prices with average sales price decreasing by 9%

and median prices decreasing by 13% and days on market have increased by 46%. The

same holds true for the vacant land market. Average and median selling prices continue

to reflect a downward trend but showing some moderation in the amount of decrease as

compared to 2009.

7

substantial increase in sales volume of 148%, with average selling prices increasing by

54% and median selling prices increasing by 31%. There continues to be an ample supply

of inventory. Absorption rate has improved but days on market have increased from 162

to 263. The townhome market decreased in 2010 with dollar sales volume decreasing by

6% and average and median selling prices decreasing by 6% and 15% . The

condominium market had increased sales volume but average selling prices decreased by

38% and median selling prices decreased by 40%.

The vacant land market relative to number of transactions has held fairly stable. The

number of land transactions held fairly stable with 20 to 21 transactions per year for 2008

through 2010. Comparing 2010 to 2009, the average selling price increased by 152% and

median selling price increased by 42% , however the average selling price is 61% less

than the peak in 2008.

sales volume and number of transactions but the average selling price decreased by 14%

and median selling price decreased by 13% in 2010 as compared to 2009. The market

showed some resistance to asking prices as days on market increased by 12%. Grand

Lake does not have a high volume condominium market nor a high volume townhome

market, consequently any small change in sales can substantially impact average and

median selling prices. In general these two types of properties held fairly stable but did

reflect moderate decrease in average and median selling prices. Vacant land continues to

see minimal market activity with only 13 sales out of 212 listings. The average number of

transactions over the past 3 years is 13 sales. This market continues to realize decreasing

average and median prices, respectively of 42% and 47%.

8

Overall, it appears that the single family residential market in East Grand County has

stabilized. The single family residential market continues to be in an oversupply

condition and it is unlikely that there will be any substantial increase in average and

median selling prices in 2011.

The condominium market in East Grand County also has an abundance of properties

being offered for sale and continues to reflect a decrease in average and median selling

prices. This market may continue to come under pressure in 2011, due to the amount of

inventory as well as more restrictive lending policies, especially for properties that

lenders consider to be “condotels”.

The primary market for townhome properties is in the Winter Park/Fraser Valley area.

Based on comparison of 2010 to 2009 data, it appears that this market has stabilized but

there appears to be an abundance of properties available to the market. The Granby area

has minimal sales activity of townhome properties but, as in the Winter Park market,

based on comparison of 2010 to 2009, this market appears to have stabilized.

Vacant land continues to be in an oversupply condition and basically requires cash buyers

as conventional financing, based just on the merits of the land, is difficult to obtain. There

does not appear to be sufficient demand for new residential construction, which would

put greater demand on vacant lots. Consequently this market may likely continue to see

decreasing prices to move the inventory.

9

Park/Fraser Valley area. The Grand Lake area has some sales that are in this price

category, but typically those are lake front properties and not considered comparable to

the Winter Park/Fraser Valley sales.

In 2010 there were 9 sales of upper end properties. Reportedly, 3 of these sales were as a

result of bank owned, or foreclosed properties. Three of the nine sales were for cash and

the balance were financed. They sold at 90% of current list price and 73% of original list

price. These sales ranged from $945,000 to $1,705,000. The average selling price was

$1,146,944 and median selling price was $1,115,000. These properties were exposed to

the market on average 477 days with median days of 602.

In 2009 there were 8 sales of upper end properties in the Winter Park/Fraser Valley area

market. Reportedly, none were a result of a “short sale” or a foreclosed property. Four of

the sales were for cash and the balance were financed. They sold at 88% of current list

price and 76% of original list price. The average selling price was $1,314,280 and median

selling price was $1,095,000. These properties, on average, were on the market for 313

days and median days on market were 303. Based on this data, the upper end market

decreased on average 13% in 2010 and median selling price held steady at a minimal

increase of 1.8%.

As of January 1, 2011 there were 30 upper end existing homes listed for sale, ranging in

price from $975,000 to $2,950,000. Reportedly none are listed as a result of a “short sale”

or foreclosed property. These properties reflect an average list price of $1,434,931 and a

median list price of $1,299,000. Overall these listings reflect a current list price that has

been reduced 5% from the original list price. Based on 2010 market reaction of 90% of

list price, the projected average sales price is $1,291,437, which indicates an increase in

average selling price of 12.5%. With the current inventory available, an absorption rate of

9 sales per year or a 3 year inventory, and increasing days on market, it is unlikely, in my

opinion, that the market will reflect a 12.5% increase of average selling price in 2011.

10

With the Winter Park/Fraser Valley area commanding 65% of the market share, there is

more comprehensive data available for statistical analysis and is the primary focus of this

report.

The Winter Park/Fraser Valley area had total sales volume of $102,507,067,(single

family residential, townhomes, condominiums and vacant land), which is an increase of

12% as compared to 2009 - $91,148,522 sales activity. Of this total sales volume in

2010, single family residences created 43% of the total sales, condominiums had 33%,

townhomes had 18% and vacant land sales had 6%.

The $11,358,545 change came almost entirely with the sales of single family residences

which reflected an increase of sales of $10,451,323. The following line chart reflects the

change by category over the 2003 – 2010 time frame.

As indicated by the chart condominiums reflected a modest increase in sales dollars.

Whereas townhome properties decreased in sales activity by $2,243,984. Offsetting that

loss was vacant land sales which had an increase of $2,438,050.

11

Almost everyone is generally aware of the market trend over the past several years, but

the following tables quantify what took place for the Winter Park/Fraser Valley market.

12

The next table quantifies the change as a percentage as compared to the previous year.

13

Single family residential, townhomes and vacant land sales activity peaked in 2007. The

following tables compares the subsequent years to the peak year 2007.

The data indicates that the market responded more favorably in 2010 than in the previous

two years. As a percentage in 2010, if the percentage is less than the previous year or

years, it indicates that the market is moving closer to the performance in 2007. For

instance, the number of single family residences sold in 2010 was 84 versus 62 in 2009

and 75 in 2008 as compared to 135 in 2007. Total sales volume in 2010 improved as

compared to 2009 but somewhat less than in 2008. As compared to 2007 when the

average selling price was $646,701 and median selling price was $567,325, the market

data in 2010 would suggest that the market has stabilized to a degree in 2010 whereby the

average selling price only decreased by 3% and median selling price actually increased

by 2% whereas in 2009 average selling price deceased by 14% and median selling price

decreased by 18%.

The market continues to be in an oversupply condition with an absorption rate of 20%.

Looking back over the years, going back to 1995, the highest absorption rate was in 2005

at 40%. The average absorption rate over the past 15 years has been almost 34%.

Compared to the long term average, this equates to an oversupply of approximately 60

homes.

14

Due to the number of properties listed for sale, it is not probable to anticipate any

substantial increase in average or median selling prices until the current inventory is

substantially decreased.

The Winter Park/Fraser Valley area had 84 sales of single family residences in 2010,

which ranged in price from $101,000 to $1,705,000. 9 properties sold for cash and the

balance were financed. Five of the sales reportedly were short sales and 14 were

foreclosed properties or REO sales or approximately 22% were distressed sales.

58% of the sold properties had a reduction in list price as compared to the original list

price, ranging from 2% to 34% with the average being 15%. Those properties were

exposed to the market an average of 380 days and had an average selling price of

$564,000 and a median selling price of $525,000.

The properties that had an average exposure time of 87 days, did not have any list price

reduction and probably the list price was more reflective of current market conditions.

These properties averaged $459,451 and had a median selling price of $387,500.

The properties exposed to the market a longer period of time had an average size of 2,750

square feet, with an average year of construction at 1997, with 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths and

were located on a 1 acre site, whereas the properties that averaged 87 days on the market

averaged 2,300 square feet and were built in 2000 with 4 bedrooms and 3 baths and

located on a half acre site.

The Tabernash area had 27 sales located in the following subdivisions, Alpine Park,

Coyote Creek, Fairways, Junction Ranch, Pole Creek Meadows, Sunset Ridge Estates

and WP Highlands. These sales ranged in price from $200,000 to $950,000 and reflected

an average selling price of $454,000 and a median selling price of $395,000. These sales

were exposed to the market an average of 221 days with median days on market of 130.

An average of the properties sold consisted of a 2,548 sf home, built in 2000 with 3

bedrooms, 3 baths, located on a 1.17 acre site.

15

The Fraser area had 38 sales located in various subdivisions such as: Elk Court Cabins,

Rendezvous, and Winter Park Ranch. These properties ranged in price from $101,000 to

$1,227,500 with an average selling price of $500,851 and a median selling price of

$435,000. These sales were exposed to the market an average of 300 days and median

days on market were 137. An average of the properties sold consisted of 2,466 square

feet, built in 1997 with 4 bedrooms and 3 baths located on a .84 acre site.

The Winter Park area had 16 sales located in Alpine Timbers, Hideaway Village,

Idlewild Meadows, Lakota, Leland Creek and Town of Winter Park. These properties

sold in the price range from $185,000 to $1,705,000 with an average selling price of

$685,000 and median selling price of $520,000. These properties were exposed to the

market 251 days on average with median days on market of 109. The average of the

properties sold consisted of a 2,966 square foot residence, built in 2000 with 4 bedrooms

and 4 baths located on a .40 acre site.

To summarize the above: